Photography by Tom DiPace
It has been brought to the attention of the 29 other teams in the NHL that Ryan Suter will be the most coveted D-man in the upcoming free agency frenzy. Coming off a first time All-Star appearance and putting up steadily increasing numbers every year has made Suter a hot commodity with some of his best years still on the horizon (he’s only 27).
Any team, Nashville included, would relish the services of Ryan Suter but much has been batted around about possible destinations outside of the Predators organization for the upcoming UFA.
Ryan Suter has been very cryptic and clichéd in his commentary throughout the season. He entangled himself around the All-Star break with comments regarding what his future plans were and what he felt the Nashville Predators were or weren’t doing to make the franchise better. Suter lobbied for Poile and Co. to improve the team and make the Predators a Cup contender. David Poile did just that with the acquisitions of Gill, Gaustad and Andrei Kostitsyn. There isn’t much more the organization could do to prove to both Weber and Suter of their intentions to take Nashville to the next level. Although the Predators ran into a well-coached and chemistry-laden team in the Phoenix Coyotes that would prove to be their undoing, the Predators look to be primed for success in the coming years with an elite goalie locked up for 7 seasons and a great crop of farm-raised talent like Smith, Bourque, Josi, Ellis and Spaling coming up through the ranks.
But the real uncertainty lies with the amount of free agents Nashville has to negotiate this off-season…starting with the Big 2.
Weber is an RFA and not as much to worry about. A contract extention should be in the near future for the Captain of the Predators…but what of the Boy Wonder to Weber’s Batman?
Ryan Suter can enter free agency and make a boatload of money, probably in the $6-7M range and for good reason. He had his highest point production in a season this year, he rarely misses time for illness or injury (only 32 games in 7 seasons), and at 27 years old, Suter is entering the prime of his career.
To have a talent like Suter walk for nothing, to this writer, is not an option. The draft is coming up soon and Poile has made it very clear he wants to get back into the first round of the draft. Poile has been a master over the years of trading the rights to players for picks when he knew he was going to lose their services. Case in point: Dan Hamhuis.
The first destination has been thrown around ad nauseum by many fans of the Winged Wheel. Detroit.
With Lidstrom possibly retiring (again), Detroit will need a competent replacement for the long haul and Detroit has the resources both with money and movable assets to acquire Ryan Suter. Even though this would be the biggest slap in the face of all the Nashville Predators, business as they say is business. Suter is looking not only for more money but to finally step from beneath the mythical shadow of Shea Weber.
So, what would be the terms?
For Suter, and it’s not to crazy to imagine, I would like to see at least the signing rights for Jiri Hudler and a 3rd round pick for signing rights for Suter. If Detroit gets these rights, they will not let Suter go like Philadelphia did to the aforementioned Dan Hamhuis. Detroit would lock up Suter long term, probably 5-6 years for $6.5-7.5M per season.
Aside from the hatred of trading with the Evil Empire of Detroit, it would seem everybody wins. Nashville gets a pick in the draft for development which Nashville loves to do, and gets Jiri Hudler, a player that Detroit could possibly lose to free agency who would benefit Alexander Radulov, a fellow countryman and former KHL’er. Hudler is young and fast and would be huge on the second line with Wilson/Legwand and Radulov (if Nashville is able to hold onto him).
The second suitor as explained by John Jaeckel is that Chicago could be in the running for Ryan Suter. But what can Chicago give up for the signing rights to Suter?
Chicago has 8 picks in the upcoming draft and all will be about mid- to low-mid of the pack. Chicago doesn’t have anybody coming off for free agency of note aside from Oduya and that is not much for negotiating. Aside from Jaeckel’s argument, there isn’t a ton that Chicago is needing for defensemen. With the top pairing of Seabrook and Keith, Suter will have to fall back to a second d-pair with Nick Leddy. If Suter is wanting the kind of money and attention that he rightfully deserves as the #1 defenseman on a team, Chicago seems a highly unlikely place, but with their cap room anything is possible.
It has also been noted that Minnesota could be a possible landing spot for Ryan Suter. Minesota was lead in points for defenseman in the regular season by Jared Spurgeon (Who?…exactly). Minnesota boasts some bright stars on offense and at times can get solid goaltending from Backstrom and Harding but their defense has been lacking since Brent Burns was sent to the Sharks. The biggest problem for the Wild is the sheer amount of UFA/RFA’s that they have to contend with in the off-season. They may be confronted with something similar to what Florida had to do with bringing in talent and pushing the price up to get to the cap floor. The addition of Ryan Suter’s salary bump would help that tremendously and give them a star for their blueline.
A first-round pick from Minnesota to get the signing rights to Suter may be pretty steep, but might be the answer for the defensive woes oppressing the Wild.
Then, of course, there is the option that Ryan Suter stays put in Nashville. The elephant in the room will be how much money Suter and Weber command for their extended stay in Nashville. Both should fetch around $6.5-7.5M a piece and one would hope for at least 4-5 years length in contract. The dicey part of this scenario is how much payroll and cap space will be relegated to three players. $21-23M for Rinne, Weber and Suter doesn’t leave much wiggle room for an organization that has yet to come close to spending fully to the cap.
If you factor in the raises for Suter and Weber and the contracts already in place for the Predators for next season, that total equals roughly $45 million. The Predators will need to sign 12 more players to fill out the roster including re-signing RFA’s. With the cap at $63.4M (or as to be determined through the CBA negotiations), Nashville will have roughly $1.53M per player to fill out the roster and with trying to retain Sergei Kostitsyn and Alexander Radulov, the Predators will have a hard time even staying under the cap to fill in basic roster spots.
It has already been an interesting season for the Predators with Poile going “All-In” for a chance to go farther in the playoffs, but this summer and the albatross which is the negotiating of Ryan Suter may prove to be the defining moment, good or bad, for Poile’s managing expertise.
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Feel free to comment below whether you agree, disagree or are forming a line for pitchforks and torches…follow us on Twitter @ThePredatorial or @Preducated
Stay HardCore…
Good stuff as usual! Brings an interesting take to the story. Hope he stays, but if he wants to leave we need to get something for him!
Suter’s biggest problem is that he’s tired of being compared to a 13 year old sidekick wearing short shorts. If everybody would stop with The Dynamic Duo/Batman & Robin thing and instead start calling them The World’s Finest/Batman and Superman, he’d probably re-sign.
It was just a throw-away comparison and lends much to my argument that Suter definately wants to get out of Weber’s shadow…Suter is freaking awesome and on any other team, Suter is the end all be all of defensemen (except for Chara or Lidstrom). If Suter, as you say, is tired of being compared to a 13 yr old sidekick, then he needs to grow tougher skin and stop holding the Predators organization hostage over what he does or doesn’t plan on doing. And the clamoring by him and Weber for Poile to build a strong team to compete for the Cup still grates me to this day…no player should have the ability to hold management accountable for team decisions and directions no matter how good they are whether it’s the NHL, NBA, NFL or otherwise. Players are paid to play, managers are paid to manage. You can’t have the inmates running the asylum..ya know?
I say… “See ya Sutes!” “Thanks for your service”…. Suter is great, no question. I question his lack of effort in the latter part of this season. One could easily see that he is proving to the preds and the fans that he is ready to move on. I bet with his love for home in Wisconsin, he ends up a wing or a wild. That said, the mgmt needs to move him and get something for him. As unpopular a move as that would be, it is necessary if we want to be perennial contenders for the cup. Bring in or up some younger/cheaper talent on defense and add to our star power on offense. Our goalie is good enough to pick up defensive shortfalls, but our goalie and captain D-Man cannot score enough to win over and over. Preds have a stout defense even without Sutes, and can easily replace him with (a granted less talented) a free agent out there for much cheaper. If we spend all we have to protect our own net, what will we do when we cant even attack the other teams’ nets. Feel free to disagree, but math is math. His production plus his prevention of opponents’ productions with a factor of his salary VS a free agent who would likely produce just as much if not more (Sutes is not offensively minded or gifted) minus their less effectiveness on prevention of productions and factoring in a much cheaper salary… the net would be a positive as long as the savings were used productively to get more offensive talent.
The sky is not falling. It’s going to be okay. Let’s look at the numbers in detail. Then, if you still want to whine and moan, go ahead. But, you shouldn’t be.
Take a look:
Legwand 4.000
Erat 5.500
Fisher 3.000
Hornqvist 3.250
Spaling 1.000
Smith 0.740
Halischuk 0.825
Bourque 0.635
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18.950
Klein 1.350
Josi .875
Ellis .810
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3.035
Rinne 7.000
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7.000
Dumont 1.333
Lebda .467
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1.790
30.775 UNDER CONTRACT and BUY OUTS
RFA
Koistitsyn 2.500 2.500- No obligation to raise dollar amount for qualifying offer…could go to arbitration.
Wilson .875 1.000- A qualifying offer would only be about .945…arbitration?
Radulov .984 4.000- Would be a fair offer. KHL not a factor to arbitrator.
Weber 7.500 7.500- Qualifying offer. Would he really go to arbitration again?
Hillen .650 .715- Would be a qualifying offer. Do we really need this guy back though?
Lindback .700 .735- Qualifying offer. Wouldn’t get much more at arbitration.
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16.420 RFA CONTRACTS
UFA
Tootoo 1.400- Could he really command much more elsewhere. Fans don’t want to lose him!
Koistitsyn 0.000- Gone (period).
McGrattan 0.000- Gaustad is the new enforcer…and he can actually play.
Gaustad 2.500- Apparently he wants to stay. No reason to pay him above last year’s salary.
Yip 0.000- We can get the same or better within the organization.
Suter 6.000- He’ll sign long-term for that. He’s not as valuable as Rinne (7M) or Weber (7.5M)
. He has value. Pay him what he’s worth.
Bouillon 1.000- He wants to stay. For the good of the cause, he’ll play for less.
Gill 2.500- He also wants to stay
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13.400 UFA CONTRACTS
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60.595 NHL CONTRACTS
That’s 23 players under contract at the NHL level with 2.805 in cap space. Am I off in my numbers anywhere? Should Rad and/or Suter get more? What about Wilson, Gill, or Gaustad? Does Tootoo come back? What about Hillen or Yip?
All I’m saying is, “It’s possible.” I don’t have the time or patience to listen to the gloomy doomy blabber without looking at the facts/numbers first. Granted, my projected numbers aren’t facts, but I think it’s safe to say that I’m close. If necessary, we don’t bring back Gaustad or Hillen or trade Radulov. The bottom line is that we can sign Suter and Weber and ice a competitive team. The real question is, “Will ownership approve a payroll of this size?”
SUMMARY: It’s possible, if ownership will allow it.
View full salary data for the Predators
your numbers are off for a few guys..See Wilson, Anders, Hillen, Rads, maybe a couple others…some more some less. But mainly we would be over the cap
Like you said…”If ownership will allow it.” That in and of itself is the main concern. Yes it can be done, but much like everyone else is figuring Suter will command around $7M if he hits the free agent market and all signs point to him doing exactly that since his extension has not been finalized with the Predators this season and the ultimatums he has placed on the Predators were fulfilled yet Suter and his agent still haven’t made any attempts to sign here. Like was stated earlier, I don’t want to lost Suter, but if we can at least get a little something for him and use the $6.5-7M per year on some proven scoring talent (and believe me it is out there, I’ve got more articles about this very thing) the Predators can find a defenseman and a top winger for the same amount for just one Ryan Suter.
Edit: …don’t bring back…Gill (not Hillen)…
Andrew- My source was nhlnumbers.com. I’m aware of Wilson and Ellis receiving bonuses with their contracts. However, you must not be aware that they don’t count against the cap. So, it didn’t make sense to include them since I was measuring money against the cap. That is the big issue at stake. Again, the even bigger issue is ownership’s approval. I cited next season’s salaries for players already under contract as opposed to the numbers you cited which carries the label of 11′-12′. I checked capgeek.com and cap central on the hockeybuzz.com website to compare. There are some differences. Who is to say which is right or wrong. We’re close to the cap either way. People keep talking about Rinne, Weber, and Suter all signed at around 7M each (give or take) is a bad plan. The numbers show that it’s not necessarily a bad plan. There is still plenty of money and talent to go around. With the increased revenues, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to make this work. My prediction is Suter stays and so does Weber. I hope I’m right.
I hope you’re right too, but not at the expense of icing a competitive team…I’m starting to think that Radulov might be the lynch-pin in the scheme to have a team capable of getting to the playoffs and beyond the second round…a full season with Radulov getting more chemistry and familiar with the players and the smaller ice surface will help tremendously with our on-ice product next year…we shall see.
Damien Brunner, 26 years old, topscorer of the swiss national league 2011/2012, could be something for the Predators. The guy got never drafted and would not be exspensiv. A one year contract for 0.8 m. Not much risk in such a deal.
He has a good puck handling, but tends to play “the flashy style” and is not very strong physically:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UQm9vC3yNE&feature=endscreen&NR=1