With the upcoming arbitration of Shea Weber looming, Predators fans and non-Predators fans alike are waiting to see if the star defenseman will be on a 1-2 year deal or a long-term deal brokered out before (or during) the arbitration.
However, regardless of what happens over the next couple of weeks, one question keeps running through my mind. Is it conceivably possible that the Predators will be without one of their top 3 players at the beginning of the 2012-2013 season?
Easy answer there is yes, it is without a doubt conceivably possible that the Predators could be without Suter or Rinne at the beginning of the 2012-2013 season. David Poile has continually stated that it is the top priority of the team, after re-signing Weber and finding another forward to help the team, to get Suter and Rinne signed to long term deals. Yet, financially, does it make sense to sign them both to long term deals? Or does it make sense to sign one to a long term deal and possibly trade the other during the season or trade the other during the off-season for the rights to that particular player?
Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne both make nearly the same amount of money right now. Needless to say, Suter and Rinne will probably be looking for nearly the same amount of money that Shea Weber receives on his upcoming contract, and rightfully so. With 3 potential contracts eating around $22-$23 million dollars a year, that would leave $40 million left in cap space to pay the remaining 20 players on the active roster. Factoring in Erat/Legwand/Fisher/and Hornqvist’s upcoming salaries, you’re down to $24 million in cap space to pay the remaining 16 players on the active roster. So, if you’ve done your math properly, that averages out to $1.5 million per player. Granted, some will make more than that, but the average player salary for an AVERAGE player is around $1.5-$2 million a year currently. Nashville has 12 active roster players that will be either an RFA or a UFA at the end of the 2011-2012 season. Add a deterrent of the Predators NEVER spending to the cap ceiling and it poses a very interesting situation.
The most obvious choice to be traded? Pekka Rinne. Wait, don’t leave so soon, let me explain what I mean:
Evidenced when Suter is injured, Shea Weber almost seems to be a shell of his self without his linemate on the ice (this season he had 1g/2a/-8 in 9 games while Suter was injured, the team went 3-5-1). Weber and Suter are like Ice Cream and Cake, a definitive combination of superiority. Suter’s hockey-smarts and on-ice abilities are hardly rivaled in the defensive aspect of the game. He’s a true decision maker and I don’t believe Weber would want anyone else as his partner on the ice.
Pekka Rinne is one of the top goaltenders in the world. Not the league, the world. He has a monstrous net presence and has one of the best work ethics in the league. He does not like to be beaten and gets visibly angry when you do sneak one past him. He makes the most difficult saves look simple and makes the easy saves look like highlight-reel material. However, behind Pekka Rinne lie 3, maybe even 4, NHL-quality goaltenders in the making. Anders Lindback is the real deal. Everything that Pekka Rinne is, but a few years younger. Lindback will be coming in his prime soon and will be JUST as good as Rinne is now. There is also Jeremy Smith and recently drafted Magnus Hellberg, who could be JUST as good as Rinne/Lindback as well, evidenced by what we saw at the rookie development camp. Let’s not forget Chet Pickard either.
Now, all that being said, losing either of these star players would be tough to swallow for any Predators fan, however when you have backup players that can be JUST as good as the star player, you have to pick the lesser of two evils. In this case, that, in my mind, would be Pekka Rinne.
Granted, David Poile is a wizard in terms of finding ways to make the most out of his roster and team, based on what the owners/executives allow him to do in terms of spending, yet it’s possible that there could be plenty of new faces on the Predators come late 2012.
Look at the positives though, if one of the two IS to be traded during the season, the trade could produce the parts necessary to take Nashville deep in to the Stanley Cup playoffs. Would you be ok with a Suter/Rinne trade if it landed Lord Stanley in Nashville? Wrap that question around the proverbial noodle for a little while.
Thanks for reading!
~KM
Ahhhhhh!! You know how I feel about Pekka, and I <3 Suter as well. I see what your saying though and I *gulp* agree. :-/ while I don't want to lose Pekka or Suter if I had to choose, it would be Peks. I think Suter (especially when coupled with Weber) is more valuable to the team. But if at all possible…let's keep both, k?
lol, I wish I had the bargaining power to be able to keep both, or at least fight for both. Guess we’ll have to see what happens!
I completely agree that Pekka should be gone before Suter. In today’s NHL, goalies are getting easier and easier to find. If we were spending to the cap, we keep Pekka all the way. But with our salary situation and with the way the goalie market looks and the way our own goalie situation looks it makes no sense to be spending 5, 6 or 7 million on a goalie. Particularly one who has only had one great season.
What I do NOT agree with is that a Pekka trade would land us anything that makes us a Cup contender. The same goalie market that makes Rinne expendable is the same goalie market that makes his return in a trade suspect. Why is anybody going to give up a stud for Rinne when you can sign a guy like Vokoun for 1.5 mil?
Vokoun is an aging goaltender while Rinne is in his prime. I do agree that the marked is a little flooded with goaltenders, however it’s not flooded with elite goaltenders. There will be a team out there that will pay DEARLY for a Rinne-type player
A problem is the reasoning behind moving Pekka would be money. We couldn’t afford him. So how do we trade him for a player or two that would help bring the Cup to Nashville? Players like that would be costly too. If we can’t afford to pay Pekka, we can’t afford to pay the players we trade for either.
Traditionally speaking, this club has been very fiscally responsible. However, as David Poile mentioned at the “Skate of the Union”, the Predators are in “the window”. The largest pieces of that window to keep it hanging together are: Weber, Suter, and Rinne. I agree that Weber and Suter are like peas and carrots. They’re not the same without each other.
Yes, there are other good goalies in the organization. However, it (usually) takes superb goaltending to win the cup. Think of the previous cups won by goalies: Boston (Thomas), Chicago (Niemi), Pittsburgh (Fleury), Detroit (Osgood), Anaheim (Giguere), Carolina (Ward), Tampa Bay (Khabibulen), and New Jersey (Broduer). Each of these cups came as a result of great goaltending. Niemi might be the only exception, but he had a stellar set of top four defensemen along with five or six scoring machines. The Preds don’t have ANY scoring machines! Look at all the other teams had scoring machines as well. You know who they are.
The Predators won’t win a cup on the shoulders of two great defensemen, sub par goal scoring, and an inexperienced goaltender.
By the way, the Vokoun deal is a definite exception. He is worth more than 1.5 million. He normally would’ve commanded a salary three times that, but under the circumstances, 1.5 million is the way it worked out.
Now to sandwich this together, the ownership group has said more than once they’re committed to doing what it takes to bring a cup to Nashville. Jeff Cogen and his people have done a remarkable job of selling tix and bringing money into the franchise. If that trend continues (I believe it certainly will), there will be more money available to sign players. The payroll will continue to increase. David Poile and the ownership group are wise enough to know that keeping these three special players with the team is necessary.
David Poile will find a way to bring a scoring stud into Nashville. Heck, we might already have him with Bergfors, Koistitsyn, Wilson, Beck, Latta, Bourque, or Budish. There’s upside to these guys. We know what to expect from Hornqvist, Fisher, Legwand, and Erat. We’ll see what comes out of the arbitration hearings. Maybe Poile will find another deal there.
Well, one thing’s for sure; Poile won’t have the luxury of working at a snail’s pace if he wants to keep Suter and Rinne. The fact that they’re UFA instead of RFA makes their signings more urgent.
Btw, disagree that you need great goaltending to win a Stanley Cup. Niemi, Fleury and Osgood are good, but not great goaltenders. They had excellent puck possession teams in front of them which always helps. Detroit won’t pay goaltenders exorbitant amounts because they believe in building the team in front of them first. It’s been a pretty good model so far.
That being said, the Preds are not that type of team. They need a Rinne in net if they’re going to be anything more than mediocre. Let’s face it, our defense probably comes out pretty crappy statistically if not for Rinne last year.
Poile is right about the window comment; albeit a narrow sunbeam seeping through the crack type window IMO. Of the big 3, its truly is a delimma to have to choose. If DP can get Rinne to believe, like I believe, that paying a goalie more than 4mil is practically dead in the NHL then maybe we have a chance to keep all 3…….
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This talk about the window being open is a bunch of hogwash. If you want to open a window you gotta spend the money to open it. There’s no open window when the team can’t spend money. There’s just a good team and we cross our fingers that they get hot at the right time. The owners are way too cheap or way too scared to spend the money it takes to open the window. This off season has done nothing but prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Ahhh, but a rental wouldn’t be that costly. Even if we traded Pekka for a rental, if the rental helped bring the Cup to Nashville, it would be worth it IMO. (This is all speculation, of course)
Look at our last rental, we gave up a ton for Forsberg. Even if it didn’t produce anything, he didn’t cost us that much in the long run
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Re-read my words. “…superb goaltending to win the cup.” This is not the same thing as saying, “Osgood and Fleury are great goaltenders” (NOUN). It takes great goaltending (VERB) performance to win the cup. On the contrary, Luongo is a great goaltender (NOUN). However, he can’t consistently put forth a great goaltending (VERB) and he had some great defensemen and forwards (NOUNS) in front of him. As you say, Fleury and Osgood are good goaltenders who can perform well in the playoffs. Attribute it to the players in front of him if you want, but if Luongo IS a great goaltender, how come he can’t win a Stanley Cup when he has a great team in front of him. You can talk Tim Thomas if you want, but regardless, he had some very bad performances.
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I actually wouldn’t mind trading rinne. Talk about selling high! We can’t trade suter because like you pointed out, weber isn’t too great without him. I would actually trade weber before suter. But that’s just me
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